Steve Tandy’s side will attempt to halt a bleak sequence of results at the Principality Stadium this weekend when they face Japan.
In the second match of the Quilter Nations Series, Wales will be desperate to snap a run of 10 straight home defeats stretching back more than two years.
Although they broke an 18-match losing streak by defeating the Brave Blossoms in Kobe during the summer, last weekend’s 52-28 loss to Argentina ensured the autumn Tests began in familiar disappointment.
For Lake, the underlying challenge is psychological as much as tactical.
“I think for us, it’s about learning to win,” he said.
“When you’re winning consistently, you never really worry about being behind in games.
“You don’t think about chasing games, you don’t try and do too much on your own, you just understand that your game model, and what you do, will eventually shine through and you’ll end up being there or thereabouts.
“I think for us it’s about learning that. We don’t mind where we win.
“We’d love to do it at home in front of the home crowd, for the fans, for everybody that’s supported us through a very difficult period.
“But it’s just about getting back to that point where you kind of feel unbeatable and any game you’re in, you feel like you know by the end you can win.
“It’s our job to give the stadium energy, to give the people something to cheer about.”
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Lake has been promoted to captain after Jac Morgan suffered a shoulder dislocation while scoring against Argentina — an injury that is expected to rule the flanker out for a significant spell, and potentially the Six Nations.
In Morgan’s absence, Wales have reshuffled their back row, with Alex Mann switching to openside, Alan Wainwright taking the blindside role, and Olly Cracknell handed a start at number eight.
There is also a notable change in the back three: Louis Rees-Zammit has been picked to start for the first time since returning from his short-lived foray into American football.
Tandy, who is overseeing this autumn campaign, views the speedster as crucial to injecting spark into a team low on confidence.
The stakes for Saturday are unusually high for a Test outside a World Cup or Six Nations window.
With the draw for the 2027 Rugby World Cup scheduled for December 3, Wales — sitting 12th in the world rankings — need a victory to remain in band two.
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Japan, only one place behind them, could leapfrog the hosts with a win or even a draw.
It will be the nations’ third encounter this year, after they split their July series 1-1. Wales edged the second Test 33-21 in Kobe, one week after Japan prevailed 24-19 in Kitakyushu — and those contrasting results underline just how evenly matched the sides have become.
Wales have won only once in their last 20 matches, a stark indicator of their current vulnerability.
Yet there were fleeting positives in defeat to Argentina, particularly in attack, and Lake’s forceful showing — capped by a try — offered a rare bright spot.
Japan, meanwhile, have been active and battle-hardened in recent months.
They reached the Pacific Nations Cup final, performed admirably in a narrow 19-15 defeat to Australia, and despite heavy losses to South Africa and Ireland, have shown moments of sharpness and ambition.
They will not fear a trip to a ground where visiting teams have found success far too easily in recent years.
Still, Wales have reasons to believe they can take a much-needed step forward.
Rees-Zammit’s pace, Mann’s energy, and Lake’s physicality give Tandy’s side genuine weapons — and the knowledge that victory could secure a more favourable World Cup draw adds an extra layer of urgency.
Defeat, however, would deepen the gloom and potentially consign Wales to a tougher pool in 2027.
A win on home soil — their first in Cardiff since 2023 — would not solve every issue, but it would represent a start, a foothold in a long climb back to credibility.
Whether outright optimism is justified remains to be seen. Wales should have just enough to overcome Japan, but the margins are thinner than the Principality crowd, Tandy or Lake would like.
🏉 Wales vs Japan — Match Factfile
📍 Venue: Principality Stadium, Cardiff
📅 Date: Saturday 15 November 2025
⏰ Kick-off: 5.40pm (UK time)
📺 Live on: BBC One & S4C
💥 Headline
Stand-in skipper Dewi Lake leads Wales as they attempt to halt a long run of home defeats against a spirited Japan side battling for Rugby World Cup seeding.
🧾 Competition
Autumn Quilter Nations Series
🔎 Players to Watch
Wales: Dewi Lake, Louis Rees-Zammit
Japan: Michael Leitch, Shota Horie
💬 Player’s View
“I think for us, it’s about learning to win,” said Dewi Lake.
“We’d love to do it at home in front of the home crowd… it’s our job to give the stadium energy, to give the people something to cheer about.”
💷 What’s at Stake
Both sides are fighting for a place in pot two for the 2027 Rugby World Cup draw on December 3.
For Wales, it’s also a chance to claim just their second win in 21 Tests — and their first victory in Cardiff since 2023 — while Japan aim to leapfrog the hosts in the world rankings.
📈 Odds
Wales 2/9
Draw 22/1
Japan 10/3
