Can it ever come back?
Not, when, but can?
A 73-0 home defeat to South Africa has brought that question into sharper focus.
The disintegration of the national team over the past two years has been so utterly damning, so self-destructive, and relentlessly propulsive, it is now really hard to see a way back.
Forget cyclical downturns, or swings of fortune, this might well be it - a ferris wheel permanently stuck with the Wales team at the bottom of the circle.
A team that was winning Grand Slams and reaching World Cup semi-finals just a few years ago could now be hanging around 12th position in the global rankings - alongside the likes of Japan, Georgia and Italy - for keeps.
Just because a sport helps provide a country’s national identity doesn’t mean it’s immune from terminal decline.
In the 1970s and 80s, the West Indies boasted the best, and most feared team in world cricket.
Now, they are nowhere and there are no signs of them coming back.
In the 1950s, football’s most dominant team was Hungary, who lost just once in a decade and handed out lessons to everyone. Now, they are world ranked 41.
Twenty years later, in the 1970s, the great Dutch football team reached back-to-back World Cup finals before they became European champions in 1988.
The Netherlands are on the upturn again, but their period of decline, when they were miles off the best teams in the world, lasted almost 30 years.
Anyone who thinks that by reducing the number of teams playing professional men’s rugby from four to three is somehow a solution to the fundamental issues of decline is in denial about the deeper malaise.
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Equally, anyone expecting Steve Tandy to turn things around dramatically in time for the next Six Nations, or the next World Cup, is delusional.
This will be a slow, painful, incremental journey, with absolutely no guarantee of reaching its desired destination.
Of course, Welsh rugby could come back, but unless the depth of the threat is faced up to, it it may not.
This was the third time this month Wales have conceded over 50 points in front of their own now inured supporters.
This was a home humiliation even heavier than the 68-14 Six Nations drubbing by England back in March.
The result ranks as the second-largest losing margin in Wales’ history, surpassed only by the 96-13 thrashing inflicted by South Africa in Pretoria in 1998.
It also marked the first time Wales have failed to score at home since a 51-0 defeat to France at Wembley in 1998.
Before that, you have to go back to 1967 for the last scoreless outing in Cardiff, when Wales were beaten by Ireland.
It’s clear, too, that, a team that loses so heavily so regularly is now inevitably starting to lose support from what has been one of the most loyal fan bases in the world.
Vast pockets of empty seats were visible throughout the Principality Stadium, with the crowd listed at 50,112—far below what this fixture has traditionally drawn.
In recent years, the average attendance for South Africa’s visits to the Welsh capital have exceeded 64,000, with the previous low of 54,027 recorded in 2010. This turnout fell well short of that benchmark.
A grim November for Wales concluded with a wholly predictable dismantling, as Tandy’s depleted squad were swept aside by the reigning world champions.
With the match scheduled outside World Rugby’s official Test window, Tandy was unable to select any of his players based in England or France, leaving Wales severely underpowered. The Springboks—short of a dozen big names themselves—showed no mercy.
Their dominant pack laid the platform for 11 tries, with Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu and Andre Esterhuizen standing out in a backline given complete freedom as Wales slumped to their worst home defeat in history.
It was not quite as bad as the Pretoria pummelling of 27 years ago, but in terms of pure one-sided pointlessness, it was almost up there.
Wales were crushed at scrum time, bulldozed at the breakdown, and carved to pieces elsewhere on the field.
Whatever game plan Wales may have gone in with, was lost early on and never retrieved.
Yet what should have rounded off a triumphant year for South Africa, one in which they have clearly pulled ahead of their rivals, was tarnished by a moment of low class.
Eben Etzebeth appeared to drive his thumb into the eye of Wales flanker Alex Mann, prompting referee Luc Ramos to send off the legendary lock without hesitation.
A lengthy suspension now seems inevitable.
Some time away from the spotlight is due for Wales, too, before it all starts again in 10 weeks’ time and the Six Nations.
