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Newport County Can Still Roll the Dice . . . But They Need Ladders, Not Snakes

Newport County players. Pic. Alamy

Newport County players. Pic. Alamy

With just 10 regular season games left to play in 2025-26, Newport County's season is fast approaching crunch time, as Ian Mitchelmore reports.

The Exiles moved out of the fourth tier's relegation zone for the first time in five months last week as they beat Tranmere Rovers 3-1 at Rodney Parade.

But they swiftly fell back into the bottom two following a 2-1 loss to play-off Colchester United on home soil four days later.

That said, Newport have one thing that is essential to any team fighting survival. Hope.

They have taken seven points from their previous five league outings, with a hugely impressive 3-1 win at Salford City kick-starting their recent upturn in results.

READ MORE: Christian Fuchs is Smiling Again as Newport County Rise up After 151 days

And there is no doubt that there have been some improvements under Christian Fuchs - who has now overseen 20 League Two matches as Exiles manager, making it a decent enough sample size.

Newport have won four of those fixtures at a win rate of 20% and are averaging 0.85 points per game under 2015-16 Premier League winner Fuchs. Hardly eye-catching statistics.

Indeed, even former boss Dave Hughes took charge of three wins in 16 league matches.

But Austrian Fuchs inherited a side that were sitting rock bottom of the Football League and were four points adrift of safety.

READ MORE: Newport Errors Have to Stop, Warns Christian Fuchs . . . or Else We’re in for a Tough Season

Even after their loss to Colchester last time out, Newport are only in the relegation zone on goal difference.

And the club would actually be sitting in 20th - three places and five points above the drop zone - if only Fuchs' time as boss was taken into account.

But the key question remains. Can Newport pull off the Great Escape?

Opta's data model currently gives Newport a 56.64% chance of being relegated, with only bottom side Harrogate Town (72.68%) having a higher predicted chance of going down.

READ MORE: Onward Christian’s Soldiers . . . Newport County Planning a Quick March out of the Relegation Zone

So, it seems the Exiles may well have to upset the odds over the remainder of the run-in.

Each of their next three fixtures are against sides currently in the top half, with Barnet in 10th, Bromley leading the table and Walsall in 11th.

However, the final stages of the campaign are where things are likely to reach the make-or-break scenario as, over the course of their final six matches of the season, Newport face four of the other six teams currently in the bottom seven.

The Exiles are no strangers to late drama in relegation scraps, although this particular race could well go down to the wire, particularly as they travel to Barrow - the side currently keeping them out of the bottom two on goal difference - on the final day of the season.

There will be plenty of pressure moments over the remaining weeks of the campaign, but, in Fuchs' eyes, that could well suit his players.

Speaking after the loss to Colchester, the Newport boss said: "It’s one of those games when certain moments and decisions didn’t go our way. But the first 30 minutes from us wasn’t good enough. 

"There wasn’t enough energy. The same patterns were shown as in previous weeks – too little. I get different excuses. I just don’t want to see us fall back into old patterns. 

"We might have been a little too relaxed after we came off the back of results and getting out of the bottom two. Maybe we need that pressure to perform."

So, maybe it was a case of taking their foot off the gas against Colchester.

One thing is for certain. If that was the case, it would be a kind of complacency Newport can ill-afford to repeat any time soon with games swiftly running out.

 

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