It’s all on the line for the Lions on Saturday, including the reputation of Warren Gatland, argues Robin Davey. Another defeat and the tour’s failings will be a black mark to set against his numerous successes.
Saturday really is crunch time for the British and Irish Lions and for coach Warren Gatland, in particular.
The Lions were soundly beaten 30-15 by the All Blacks in the opening Test last week and if they lose the second in Wellington the series will be gone as well. That would make the third Test next week largely irrelevant.
But the reputation of Gatland is very much on the line as well as that of many of the leading players.
Gatland did coach the Lions to a 2-1 Test series victory in Australia in 2013, a trumph that underlined his status as one of the world’s best coaches.
But the relative slump by Wales since that time – allied to a perceived lack of flexibility in his methods – meant he wasn’t exactly everyone’s choice to head up the tourists Down Under again.
Yet his rivals – Eddie Jones, Joe Schmidt and Gregor Townsend – all passed up the opportunity to coach the Lions, leaving Gatland as the obvious choice once again.
But this time it’s been a different story, with the Lions losing a couple of provincial matches and held to a draw by their most recent opponents, the Hurricanes, on Tuesday.
The Lions did give it a go in a really hard fought first Test, but the All Blacks were that bit superior in just about every department.
Now comes that crunch, and it’s a clash Gatland can ill afford to lose for his current record against the land of his birth is played 11, lost 11. Ten of those setbacks have been in charge of Wales while the 11th was last Saturday in that ill-fated Auckland Test.
Another defeat will leave Gatland’s reputation tarnished despite leading Wales to two Grand Slams, two Triple Crowns and three Championships since taking over 10 years ago,
He has gambled again for the second Test, this time by going for the Johnny Sexton-Owen Farrell partnership at 10/12 which he probably wanted from the start but has been unable to field because of Sexton’s injury and his relatively poor form.
Farrell didn’t exactly cover himself in glory last Saturday, so now that the pair are in harness they owe it to themselves and to Gatland to perform.
Their success or otherwise will probably determine the outcome, so it’s a safe bet the All Blacks will target the pair, just as they did scrum-half Conor Murray in the first Test.
Gatland has also restored Sam Warburton at seven in the hope that he can slow down the All Blacks’ possession after injury ruled the tour captain out of the first Test.
The selection of Maro Itoje at lock completes the changes, but players like Ospreys pair Rhys Webb and Justin Tipuric can consider themselves very unlucky to miss out while another, Alun Wyn Jones is probably fortunate to retain his place.
Whatever the selection the Lions would be up against it, for the world champions appear to be in a class of their own, able to play it any way they wish and still come out on top.
The outcome of Saturday’s Test is likely to go the same way as the first, a 15-point gap about right, though it could be more. Then it will be about playing for pride in the final Test with more than one reputation in tatters.
