Winners against Scotland, losers to England, Wales now need to make changes for their next Six Nations game against Ireland, argues Robin Davey. Dublin, he says, will be won or lost in a battle of the skies.
Now the hard work starts for Warren Gatland and his coaching team. The easy bit was selecting an unchanged team for the England clash after the terrific performance against Scotland, though Leigh Halfpenny’s late withdrawal at Twickenham did require a reshuffle.
But despite a brave effort against the Six Nations champions, this time there really must be changes with Ireland next up.
Some players are going to be disappointed when the team is announced next Tuesday despite their efforts against Scotland and England, for Ireland in Dublin a week on Saturday will be an altogether different proposition.
Their approach will be based around a kicking game, for they possess two of the best exponents in half-backs Conor Murray and Johnny Sexton.
They will be sure to hoist the ball high and wait for errors by Wales, then pounce for the all-important early score before even thinking of expanding their game.
So it’s vital Gatland and his assistants pick a ‘back three’ brave in defence and capable of dealing with the high ball, a difficult enough task in the dry but with conditions at the Aviva Stadium more than likely to be wet and windy it’s even more important Wales are stable in defence.
They did concede two tries at Twickenham, but those were not from any mistakes under the high ball, while their achievement in confining England to just two penalties in the entire game was admirable.
But Dublin will be different and on the basis of the need for reliability plus sturdiness in defence under that high ball it’s difficult to see how Josh Adams and Steff Evans can survive.
Their strengths lie in attack, Evans a particularly elusive customer while Adams has done little wrong after being plucked from near obscurity in view of Wales’ injury crisis.
But a greater physical presence will be the first requirement in Dublin which means George North, Liam Williams and Hallam Amos must at the very least come into consideration, while Leigh Halfpenny will surely return at full-back.
He is an absolute rock in defence, apart from his terrific goal kicking, and Gatland accurately called him the best defensive full-back in the world after the Scotland game.
Pretty much a shoo-in for Dublin then, you’d think, especially given the bombardment the Welsh full-back is sure to receive from Murray and Sexton.
Likewise, North, especially, and Williams have a greater physical presence than Adams and Evans. North can be a towering figure – has a great record against the Irish – and now back playing again after a load of injury problems, while Williams is another proving his fitness and arguably Wales’ best counter-attacker.
Amos also showed his prowess on his return from injury playing for the Dragons against high-flying Glasgow last Friday and was clearly man-of-the-match.
Provided there are no further injury scares the ‘back three’ against Ireland ought to be Halfpenny, North and Williams, a trio who won’t flinch at whatever Murray and Sexton throw, or rather boot, in their direction.
There should also be a further change at No.10 for much the same reason, with a fit again Dan Biggar returning after being out with shoulder trouble.
Rhys Patchell occupied the position against Scotland and enjoyed a fine game, playing in much the same way as he has for the Scarlets, opening up the game and often wrong-footing the defence.
He was not as assured at Twickenham, though, battling vainly after a series of barbs from England coach Eddie Jones, and eventually made way for Gareth Anscombe who moved up after being a late replacement for Halfpenny at full-back.
Anscombe showed some of his critics who claim he’s overrated that he is, indeed, capable of playing international rugby, mixing up his game and posing problems for England.
But, again, solidity is essential against Ireland in Dublin, steady in all respects and certainly formidable in defence. For those reasons Biggar would be a reassuring figure to have at outside-half over there.
So, the back division I’d go for in Ireland would be: Halfpenny, North, Scott Williams, Parkes, Liam Williams, Biggar, Davies.
The pack which has performed so well in the opening two games, would start again, but as some players return from injury so another falls victim, this time Ross Moriarty whose shoulder injury suffered against England threatens to keep him out.
With Taulupe Faletau still not fully recovered from his knee injury, if Moriarty is out it could well mean Josh Navidi switching to No.8 with Justin Tipuric coming in on the flank.
Navidi, who along with Aaron Shingler and Cory Hill has been the discovery of the season, is well capable of playing at No.8, while the assets of Tipuric are pretty well documented.
Moriarty’s absence would mean a loss of physical presence, though, and Gatland must be hoping the Dragons-bound player comes through next week.
If selection is right, with the emphasis this time unashamedly on defence, Wales can emerge from Ireland triumphant and deny the hosts their tenth successive victory.
