Scotland may have lost skipper Greig Laidlaw to injury, but it will take more than that for Wales to beat them at Murrayfield, according to Robin Davey. Unless they axe suspect players, and both players and coaches react to events as they are happening, it will be another defeat.
Wales head for Murrayfield next week, smarting from their narrow defeat at the hands of England but with fans pleading for them to show more initiative.
For Scotland are reviving – big time – and they owe much for their rapid improvement to the way they play so much off the cuff.
They possess a mobile pack, are quick to the breakdown, with the backs to capitalise. Stuart Hogg and Tommy Seymour are on fire and Finn Russell is one of the more creative outside-halves around.
Wales kicking coach Neil Jenkins has launched a strong defence of his players and the tactics against England, saying under-the-cosh wing Alex Cuthbert is an outstanding player, adding that the controversial substitution of Ross Moriarty was not pre-planned.
Not many will accept either scenario. Cuthbert is much maligned but his positional sense, in particular, has always been suspect, and so it proved in that late, match winning try on Saturday when he fell off Elliot Daly, allowing him too much room and leaving himself too much ground to make up.
And the replacement of Moriarty when he was putting in a man-of-the-match performance is difficult to justify.
His replacement, Taulupe Faletau, is undoubtedly one of the world’s finest No. 8s, but he has hardly played after a couple of significant injuries and could hardly be expected to slot straight in to a match of such high intensity.
And in any case, there was hardly any sign of Moriarty’s high octane performance letting up, making the decision to replace him even harder to understand.
It’s a 23-man game the coaches say, but if a particular player is right on the money then why on earth take him off? Whatever is said to the contrary, this case does smack of being pre-programmed.
And then there was that Jonathan Davies clearance which presented England, and George Ford in particular, the opportunity to launch the devastating counter-attack which ultimately broke Welsh hearts.
There are stats which show England have scored a high proportion of their tries from line-outs, so Wales were apparently under orders not to give England an opportunity from that phase.
But if Davies had blasted the ball high into the stands, a good 40 yards from his own line, and with time running out, would England really have scored from that position? I doubt it.
Rugby may be a highly tactical game now, with everything well rehearsed, but what on earth has happened to playing what’s in front of you and from using your initiative?
If Davies had taken the bull by the horns, used his head and stuck the ball well into the stands, there is no doubt in my mind Wales would have been celebrating a victory over the old enemy. For that is what their vastly improved performance really deserved.
And even if Dan Biggar justified Rob Howley’s decision to pick him ahead of Sam Davies, outstanding in defence especially, I’d still question whether he should have made the England line after his interception in his own 22.
As it was, he was overhauled pretty easily. To those who say a wing will always catch an outside-half in a foot race, I’d point to David Watkins who would have been away like a shot and over the line with defenders trailing in his wake.
And so to Murrayfield, a difficult enough venue even if Wales have a decent record there in recent times. One thing for sure, if Wales go there pre-programmed and playing a stereotyped game, they will, in all probability, lose.
But head north with players given a freer range, encouraged to think on their feet, then they might be in with a chance of victory and with their title hopes still alive.
