Scotland are desperate to beat Wales, but Phil Bennett reckons they will have to dream on thanks to a hard-nosed, hard-edged Wales team ready to make it a muted Murrayfield once again.
Alun Wyn Jones sums up why Wales will preserve their decade-long unbeaten streak against Scotland on Saturday.
The Wales captain was there when Wales last lost to the Scots back in 2007 – in the days of Gareth Jenkins as coach – and he’s still there now.
Scotland have the Gray brothers, Richie and Jonny, in their second row, two fine athletes and ball-handlers. But I know who I’d rather have next to me when I go into battle.
Alun Wyn has an edge about him. Any young forward can put themselves about, make some late hits, and square up to opponents with a snarl, but that’s not what I mean.
I mean the edge that comes from wisdom, the knowledge to do the streetwise thing, the necessary job, sometimes the sly work that might bend a rule but won’t be seen or fully noticed by a referee.
Alun Wyn does those tasks and the authority he now shows comes from experience as much as from attitude.
Scotland’s revival is genuine. They fully deserved their victory over Ireland on the opening weekend of the tournament and they ran France close in Paris.
But I think Wales have a decisive edge in experience, from the likes of Alun Wyn, Sam Warburton, Ken Owens, Dan Biggar, Rhys Webb, Jonathan Davies, Leigh Halfpenny and even George North.
They know this Six Nations business is about getting the job done, especially away from home.
That’s why I expect Wales to win – perhaps narrowly – although the chances of coming away from windy Edinburgh with a very valuable bonus point I would think are slim.
Murrayfield has always been one of my favourite rugby grounds and it pained me to see how the atmosphere had gone from there a few years back.
It was no more than a reflection of Scottish fans’ lack of faith in a losing team, but I’m glad to see the old place has a bit more fire and brimstone about it now – because so do the team.
I expect Scotland to try and play a fast open game, to try and get their back three into the action as much as possible, especially the brilliant Stuart Hogg.
I reckon they will miss some of the injured players they lost against France, not just Greig Laidlaw, but Josh Strauss maybe even more because he’s been a big influence in their back row.
Laidlaw is a tidy enough scrum-half, but his absence will be felt more as a goal-kicker. By international standards, he wasn’t a great kicker – only a 70% man – but he was the best the Scots had.
They are now without him and up against Leigh Halfpenny, arguably the best goal-kicker in the world right now. Again, know-how and experience points to Wales holding all the aces.
I said last week that I wanted to see Sam Davies start at No.10 for Wales. It would have been tough on Biggar, but I felt Wales could convert more of those attacking opportunities if Sam was there.
Rob Howley has stuck with Dan and I’m not too concerned about that because he adds to the brains trust, the know-how I mentioned where Wales have the advantage.
There could be a role for Sam, though, if he comes off the bench when the game starts to lose its structure.
Taulupe Faletau would have tilted that balance further in Wales’ favour, but I think his lack of rugby this season – and the barnstorming impact Ross Moriarty had against England – made keeping Faletau on the bench the right decision.
Glasgow like to play a very open, expansive game, in the Pro 12 and in Europe, and Scotland are heading down the same path.
But Test rugby is different and I just wonder if conditions are difficult, with strong winds and rain, whether this Scottish side can adapt to a more limited game-plan as well as Wales can.
The Scottish scrum creaked in Paris and I expect Wales to do a job on them in that department, which could be decisive if we get into a set-piece arm-wrestle.
I’m backing Wales to come through this one and to keep in touch with England in the table, even though there will be another bonus point chalked up by England if, as I expect, they demolish Italy on Sunday.
If Wales were to then beat Ireland at home, it would at least keep things going to the final weekend when England have to go to Dublin and Wales travel to France.
