Ireland coach Joe Schmidt believes Wales have slimmed down to speed up but still thinks Warren Gatland’s luck could run out on Saturday.
Wales will go to Dublin looking to extend a recent record of just one defeat to the Irish in their last five meetings as they seek a victory that would keep them still in contention for the Six Nations title, despite the defeat to England at Twickenham.
Ireland still have designs on a Grand Slam after two opening wins against France and Italy, with Schmidt believing the bounce of the ball and some tight decisions have gone in Wales’ favour during recent fixtures.
But he also thinks Wales will post a different challenge, with Gatland’s team having sacrificed some power for added mobility and speed.
“We have pretty much had one-score games,” said Schmidt, reflecting on recent contests between the two nations.
“I know that last year it was 15-9 right until that last bit where we were trying to play catch-up and overplayed and they got a charge-down try.
“Apart from that it was a very tight fixture so whether it is played over there or over here, they have been very tight fixtures. And maybe we are due some margin of luck to fall our way to get a result against them.
“We don’t want it to be luck, we want it to be that we make sure that we work hard enough to earn whatever we get.”
“But they are tough to break down. Rob Howley had their backs humming against Scotland.
“At the last World Cup they were the biggest team, weighing in at an average of 106kg a man. They have lightened things up, sped things up and that is going to be a challenge for us”.
Wales have a number of previously injured players coming back into contention for starting places, including George North, Liam Williams, Dan Biggar and Taulupe Faletau, but Schmidt believes Gatland may resist the temptation to make changes. “It would be pretty hard to make too many changes, considering the way they’ve performed so far.
“Most people were pretty impressed with the way they went against Scotland. They probably went a fraction better against England because of what it was, the conditions on the day.
“They did open them up a few times. I have very clear memories of the likes of Aaron Shingler running in space and putting the ball ahead, Steff Evans looking dangerous on the wing.
“If guys come back, like Toby Faletau, with Ross Moriarty and Josh Navidi being as good as they have been, it is probably just trying to find out where those guys fit in. Thankfully, they’re not my decisions.”
Schmidt won his first tournament clash against Wales in 2014, but lost in 2015, drew in 2016, and lost 22-9 last season.
In those four matches, Ireland have averaged only 16 points per game, a tally well below the 38 points they have averaged against all opponents in their last eight Tests.
“They have a great defensive ethic,” the Kiwi added. “They are always very hard to break down. England got in a couple of times, putting the ball in behind them on a very slippery day.
“But, they didn’t get more than 12 points – that’s pretty tough going. Scotland got seven points. It’s very meagre returns because that’s the way Shaun Edwards has got them functioning.
“We would expect an incredibly resilient defence, certainly 13 guys on their feet, in your face, coming hard at you.
“On the other side of the ball, I thought they attacked really well against England in conditions that, talking to people who were at the game, were pretty tough.
“They’ve got their forwards playing a lot more, they’ve got guys making passes. Samson Lee, some of his handling has been outstanding, Rob Evans the same. Ken Owens has always been a ballplayer and very dynamic ball carrier for them.
“When you’ve got someone like Aaron Shingler, as quick as he is, in the back row, his athleticism has brought a slight change into what they can afford to do. He’s playing in the wide channels and in a very athletic fashion.”
