Dai Sport columnist Phil Bennett says the Dragons’ record this season is just not good enough, the Blues are in danger of losing touch with the top six, whilst only the Scarlets and the Ospreys can be relied upon to raise a new year cheer.
The Dragons at home to Treviso may not sound like the biggest game of the weekend, but let me tell you – it’s huge.
If the Dragons lose and Treviso also pick up a bonus point, then they would leapfrog their opponents in the Guinness Pro 12 table and leave the Dragons with only Zebre beneath them.
That would be utterly humiliating for the Dragons, whose record of just three victories this season is completely unacceptable.
In seasons gone by, they could talk about progress, development, learning curves and all that claptrap. But it doesn’t wash any more, particularly for their fans.
Like me, they must look at the players in that squad and think they should be mid-table at least.
There’s an unhealthy air about the Dragons these days. The region feels stale and I know most of their seven directors would like to jump ship.
The search for new investors has shaken nothing from the trees, although it would hardly be fair to blame those trying to do the selling.
Who would want to buy, when it would be quicker and simpler just to throw money into the Usk?
The Welsh Rugby Union need to take some responsibility for what has happened there instead of continuing to sit on their hands.
But in the short term, the players and coaches need to do themselves a big favour and start winning. There were some bright moments in their defeats to the Blues and the Ospreys over the festive period, but not enough.
The other match where losing is unthinkable is Cardiff Blues’ extremely tough-looking trip to Scotland to face Glasgow.
Don’t just take my word for it that the Blues cannot afford to lose this one. Listen to the Wales captain Sam Warburton who says if they don’t beat Glasgow, the Blues are going to find it pretty difficult to finish in the top six and thereby qualify for the European Champions Cup.
I tipped the Blues to finish in the top four at the start of the season – a prediction that now look wildly optimistic.
It was based on some solid progress under Danny Wilson and some shrewd signings like Nick Williams, their powerful No.8.
But after a promising start, it has all come crashing down for the Blues and they have lost as many matches in the league as they have won.
Every season there is hype and bullish talk about them getting back to where they belong and yet, after a few false dawns, they fail to deliver. They are the Arsenal of the Pro12.
I would like to say I back them to win at Glasgow, but having seen the Scots beat Leicester recently – and helped put the skids under Richard Cockerill – I just can’t see it.
The Scarlets against Ulster looks like the walking wounded against the battered and bruised, with so many injuries on both sides.
This, I’m afraid, is the new reality of professional rugby and with all these new cautionary guidelines over head injuries, it’s only going to get worse.
We are heading towards American football, where the squads are enormous with 50-odd players. Rugby is going to need squads of 40-odd players just to rotate them when the injuries take their toll.
It will be good to see James Davies back for the Scarlets and I back them to just make enough of home advantage.
The Ospreys – by some gulf the best team in Wales at present – should be too strong at home to Connacht.
Their defence has been magnificent in recent weeks and Connacht will find it as hard to score tries as all the others have discovered.
You have to give huge praise to the work of Brad Davis, the Australian defence coach who has made the Ospreys mean and proud of it.
I’ll be taking a close look at the form of Sam Davies, with the Six Nations looming. And I doubt I’ll be the only one.
