With tired legs, jaded minds and absent players, the All Blacks are said to be vulnerable in their final tour match against Wales on Saturday. For Robin Davey, that just means they will win with slightly less comfort that usual.
Rhys Priestland summed up what we all know and fear heading into Saturday’s Test against the All Blacks when he said, “If you don’t up your game against them, it’s going to be a very tough day at the office.”
Priestland was speaking after his recall to the Welsh ranks against Georgia last week, a game which also turned out to be a very tough day at the office.
Wales were held to a narrow 13-6 victory, managing just one try, a scoreline which would perhaps go down as a moral victory against the All Blacks.
Priestland, deposed to the bench in favour of Dan Biggar on Saturday, did, however, offer the hope that Wales could achieve something on the rebound against the All Blacks.
“We have been in this situation before when we have perhaps underperformed in the game against a Tier 2 nation and everyone is doom and gloom, then changes happen and the boys up their game,” he said.
They’ll have to do precisely that on Saturday and without key backs Liam Williams and Jonathan Davies into the bargain.
Williams, with his exciting running and Davies – man of the series for the Lions against the All Blacks in the summer – with his excellent all-round play, are both sidelined by injury.
That makes an already difficult task assume near Herculean proportions and Wales will confront it with the same pack as took the field against Australia almost a fortnight ago.
Apart from the two enforced changes behind, Rhys Webb for Gareth Davies is the only other one, it is the team which generally played above expectations against the Wallabies.
They adopted a new adventurous approach, even if the result wore an all too familiar look – another defeat, this time 29-21.
If the scoreline is not to be something similar or worse against the All Blacks the pack, in particular, will have to step up to the challenge.
Yet there is some reason for hope as the All Blacks have not been their normal formidable, steamrollering force of late.
They were beaten by the Australians, for the first time for seven games, while results on their current northern hemisphere tour have been less than convincing.
All have ended in victory, but all have been less than convincing – 31-22 against the Barbarians, 38-18 against France, 28-23 against a French XV and 22-17 against Scotland.
The Scots came agonisingly close to ending their 112-year barren run against New Zealand, rattling them in the first-half in particular.
But, as they have done so often in the past, New Zealand always come up with the goods when their backs are against the wall.
Wales haven’t managed to overturn the team which used to be their biggest rivals – it’s been far too one-sided for far too long to call them that now – since way back in 1953.
The All Blacks have won 29 games in a row against Wales in what has become an embarrassingly one-sided contest, and despite a relatively unimpressive recent run by their high standards and despite being without some injured and rested players, like Ben Smith, it would be a real stretch to believe the outcome will be any different this time.
Steve Hansen will relish another return to the stadium where he enjoyed some credit as Wales coach after a difficult start, but this time he arrives under a bit of pressure.
New Zealand journalist Chris Rattue, so often a thorn in Wales’ side with his acerbic writing, has this time turned on the All Blacks after their recent displays, going so far as to say a defeat would do them good.
He believes they have become a victim of their own success and a defeat would give them a massive wake-up call, especially as the countdown to the 2019 World Cup is now well under way.
At least this time Wales are committed to a more exciting brand of rugby, with coach Warren Gatland persisting with the 10-12 axis to unlock the defence and ditching the old ‘Warrenball’ approach.
It proved popular with the fans against Australia as Wales broke free of their shackles, helped by a continuation of the bolder style in the hands of Biggar and Owen Williams.
There’s no going back now and Wales will almost certainly come out of the blocks firing on all cylinders – or that will be the aim anyway.
But even if they do, the All Blacks will soak it up for a while, lull Wales into a false sense of security, then strike on the counter with one, two or even three tries and it’ll be game over.
A new style for Wales then, but it’s the same old result for me – victory to the All Blacks, possibly by 15-20 points.
