By Graham Thomas
Warren Gatland has joked he might soon be laying on a beach and if that’s the case he will have got there by going up Schmidt Creek without a paddle.
Joe Schmidt – an old sparring partner of Gatland’s – lies in wait on Sunday, when he brings his resurgent Australia team to the Principality Stadium to play a Wales side all at sea.
After naming his team on Wednesday afternoon, Gatland sounded like a man who knows he is nearing a crossroads – the 2025 Six Nations signposted in one direction, the beach in the other.
If Wales can win, then the pressure will ease and the claim of progress through 10 defeats will not sound so hollow.
But lose for an 11th time – and become, officially, the worst Welsh national senior men’s team in history – and Gatland appears to know where that will lead.
Asked if he felt those in the Welsh Rugby Union viewed this match as make or break, Gatland replied: “If a decision is made in terms of what you’re talking about, I’m more than comfortable with that.
“I’ve been around the game for long enough. I’ll probably go back to the beach, have a glass of wine and enjoy myself away from some of the pressure! We’ll just keep working as hard as we have been doing.”
Head coach Warren Gatland says he is comfortable with any decision about his future…
His Wales side are hoping to avoid an unwelcome piece of history on Sunday against Australia. ❌#BBCRugby #Wales pic.twitter.com/bOitJZZ9vD
— BBC Sport Wales (@BBCSportWales) November 13, 2024
Gatland’s mantra is the same now as it has been since he took over for his second spell in charge – that he is building a squad for the 2027 World Cup in Australia.
The trouble is he was rightly told by those in the WRU to emphasise the here and now before the defeat to Fiji, so to return to the previous appeal for “patience” won’t wash any more with supporters.
Having said that the time for excuses was over, it’s hard to go back to offering more of the same.
Gatland clearly expected Wales would beat a Fiji team who had never won in Cardiff before, regardless of their higher ranking than Wales in World Rugby’s pecking order.
The defeat has left him exposed – not just in terms of results, but in trying to reverse ferret his way back to his previous plea to look further down the road.
“I’ve been very clear that I’m really comfortable with the decisions we’ve made,” he insisted.
“We’ve tried to point out from the outset that we need to go through some pain. I didn’t think there’d be this much pain, to be honest.
“There have been games where we haven’t been able to get over the finishing line and some close fixtures. We need to be able to do that.”
Gatland’s failure to win a game in over 12 months is not the whole story, however, – or maybe not even the main story.
The lack of success is mirrored at every level in Welsh rugby and signifies a national sport that has been allowed to tip into serious – and maybe even terminal – decline.
In 2024, the Wales senior men’s side have no wins in nine matches; the women’s team have earned four victories in 11 games; the men’s U20s have won three out of 10; and the U20 women have won none out of three.
In total, that makes for a record among those senior and primary age group teams that reads: Played 33, Won 7 – giving a success rate of just 21 per cent.
It’s a dreadful record, the kind that demands to be addressed in the WRU’s now overdue strategic review.
But there’s no doubt that a victory on Sunday would at least change the mood, if not the long-term outlook.
It’s possible, as the Wallabies, who looked so slick in victory over England last week, were unconvincing in both their Test victories over Wales this summer.
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Wales have won two of their last three matches against Australia in Cardiff and the Wallabies lost two of their three matches prior to that in the Rugby Championship, including a 67-27 walloping suffered at the hands of Argentina.
In terms of head-to-head contests, this will be the 12th time that Gatland and Schmidt have faced off against each other – only Graham Henry and Robbie Deans (15) and Michael Cheika and Steve Hensen (14) have faced each other more among tier one nations.
Schmidt has the edge, though, with seven wins, compared to three for Gatland and one draw.
Bookmakers DragonBet make Australia clear 4/9 favourites, with Wales priced at 9/5 and the draw at 20/1.
In the handicap, Wales have been given a 5.5 points start at 4/5.
