Wales' automatic qualification hopes for the 2026 World Cup were dealt a near fatal blow as Craig Bellamy's men were beaten 4-2 by Belgium at Cardiff City Stadium on Monday night.
For the foreseeable future, Bellamy would do well to focus his efforts on striking a better balance between his side's much-improved attack and pressing ability and their openness and leaky defence at the other end.
Indeed, Wales have netted two or more goals in exactly half of their 14 matches under Bellamy so far, a more than encouraging return given that they had done so in only seven of their final 26 fixtures under Rob Page.
But having kept clean sheets in three of their first five outings under the former striker, Wales have shut out their opposition just twice in the last nine matches - with those clean sheets coming against Liechtenstein, then ranked 205th in the world, and Kazakhstan, who were 114th on Fifa's list.
The significantly higher calibre of opposition faced of late must be taken into consideration, although members of the Red Wall have been right to point out that group rivals North Macedonia successfully adapted their methods to claim a pair of draws with the same Belgian side that scored eight goals in two matches against Wales.
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Former boss Page was often criticised, particularly after the Euro 2024 play-off final loss to Poland on penalties, for a more cautious and pragmatic approach, while Bellamy's methods were this week questioned by some supporters after a far more attack-minded, and even gung-ho, style had led to defensive issues being exposed.
Monday night ultimately proved to be a real missed opportunity for a side who, albeit for only 72 hours, had their hopes of finishing top of Group J firmly in their own hands after the Belgians were held to a goalless draw by North Macedonia in Ghent three days earlier.
It rounded off what was a hugely disappointing camp for Wales following their 3-0 defeat to England at Wembley, with the latest results meaning Bellamy's troops have lost four of their last five matches after starting life under the head coach with a nine-game unbeaten run.
The reality is that another play-off campaign awaits, but there is still work to be done to secure a more favourable draw ahead of the crucial March window.
So let's play out the possible positive outcomes, based on the assumption that the miracle scenario of Belgium not claiming more than a point from their remaining games against Kazakhstan and minnows Liechtenstein does not unfold:
- If Wales beat Liechtenstein and North Macedonia, they will finish second.
- If Wales beat Liechtenstein by six or more goals, a draw with North Macedonia will be enough to finish second.
- If Wales draw with Liechtenstein and beat North Macedonia, they will finish second.
In short, victory over North Macedonia in the final qualifying fixture at Cardiff City Stadium on November 18 is almost certainly going to be a necessity for Bellamy's side to finish second in their group - which in turn will earn them a more favourable play-off draw and home advantage.
Finishing third would mean Wales go into the play-offs courtesy of their Nations League efforts, having gained promotion into League A in the latter stages of 2024 in Bellamy's first campaign as boss.
But this does come with the glum caveat that Wales' seeding would be impacted, which would mean tougher opposition and games away from their Cardiff City Stadium home.
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The play-off draw, along with that of the finals itself, takes place in Washington, USA at 5pm on December 5 while the two single leg play-off matches will be held on March 26 and 31 next year.
As far as the next camp is concerned, Bellamy will be sweating on the fitness of captain and centurion Ben Davies who sustained what appeared to be a hamstring injury in the Belgium loss, while Harry Wilson - the star performer of the Bellamy era so far - is suspended for the Liechtenstein fixture after picking up his second yellow card of the qualifying campaign last time out.
Daniel James and Aaron Ramsey also appear unlikely to be available, so Bellamy will clearly need to shuffle his pack somewhat as Wales bid to bring a positive end to 2025.
The biggest tests are still more than five months away, but Wales still have plenty of work to do in the final international break of the calendar year.
Only when those tasks are done will they give themselves the best platform to do the business in March and book their place at next summer's global showpiece in the USA, Canada and Mexico.
