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The Wheels Seem to be Staying Firmly on at Cardiff City

Yousef Salech of Cardiff City. Pic. Alamy

Yousef Salech of Cardiff City. Pic. Alamy

With 20 games to go, Cardiff City’s promotion ambition looks extremely healthy, from almost every angle, as Ian Mitchelmore reports.

 

Cardiff City's League One title credentials were once again on the line as they travelled to Bradford City last weekend.

It proved to be a test Brian Barry-Murphy's men passed with flying colours as they dominated for long spells and returned to south Wales with all three points having beaten the Bantams 2-1 in front of a bumper crowd at Valley Parade, thanks to goals from David Turnbull and Calum Chambers.

Goalscorer Turnbull stated the victory was a "big statement", and while the latter stages were understandably nervy as Bradford pushed for a leveller having got back into the match through Jenson Metcalfe's 59th minute effort, the opening hour or so will have once again given Barry-Murphy plenty of fulfilment.

READ MORE: Brian Barry-Murphy Insists Source of Cardiff City's Resurgence is Substance, not Style

"I’m really pleased with the performance, and for our fans to get the victory in such an exciting manner is incredible really," said the Irishman.

Crucially, the victory means the Bluebirds now have a nine-point cushion between themselves and the play-off spots, albeit with third-placed Bradford having a game in hand.

With 20 games still to be played this season, Barry-Murphy certainly won't be taking anything for granted. 

READ MORE: Brian Barry-Murphy Insists Cardiff City can Prove Worthy Leaders as Promotion Race Intensifies

But there is no denying that they are in a truly formidable position at present.

Not long after the win at Bradford, Cardiff moved swiftly to secure the future of their most potent attacking threat, with Yousef Salech committing his long-term future to the club and easing fears of a damaging mid-season departure.

The 24-year-old forward, Cardiff’s top scorer with 13 goals in all competitions, put pen to paper on a contract extension that will keep him in south Wales until 2030. 

The agreement reduces the biggest concern facing the Bluebirds this month – the potential loss of their main source of goals at a crucial stage of the promotion race.

READ MORE: Brian Barry-Murphy Still in the Dark Over Cardiff City Transfer Ban

Salech arrived from Swedish outfit IK Sirius in January 2025 on a four-year deal and has rapidly established himself as a central figure in Barry-Murphy’s side. 

Other jigsaw pieces are falling into place, too.

Ollie Tanner has been back for several weeks after sustaining an ankle injury earlier on in the season while Rubin Colwill is edging ever closer to being available to help the Bluebirds during their run-in.

More significantly, history - and mathematics - are also in their favour, as well.

Now unbeaten in six league matches, Cardiff are averaging an astonishing 2.12 points per game in the third tier this season.

At their current rate, Cardiff would end the regular season on 97.52 points, or 98 if rounded up.
Put simply, that is promotion form, as their current standing in the league table shows.

Only five teams (Birmingham City 2024-25, Plymouth Argyle 2022-23, Sheffield United 2016-17, Wolves 2013-14 and Reading 2005-06) have cracked the 100-point barrier over the past 21 third tier seasons.

When it comes to a top two finish though, and even clinching the title, the numbers are stacked firmly in Cardiff's favour.

In 21 seasons since the Football League was rebranded in 2004, sides finishing at the top of League One average 96 points, two fewer than Cardiff are currently on target to achieve.

Over the same time frame, the runner-up in the division has claimed an average of 89 points, nine fewer than the Bluebirds are on course to manage this term.

Their projected 2025-26 total of 98 points has always been enough to guarantee automatic promotion since the rebrand took place ahead of the 2004-05 campaign.

You get the picture by now. Things are going incredibly well.

The club's hierarchy will already be planning ahead to the summer, and while they will have a contingency to cover the unlikely event that things take a drastically negative turn over the coming months, week-by-week, it feels as though the key decision makers at Cardiff City Stadium can go full throttle on plan A - which is for 2026-27 back in the Championship.

 

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